Category: Political Economy

  • What Leave are campaigning for won’t happen if they win – here’s why

    What Leave are campaigning for won’t happen if they win – here’s why

    Now that a Leave vote is looking a real possibility, I thought it was worth writing down what I think is likely to happen if they win, since there has been a lot of exaggeration on both sides, as well as significant misinformation from the Leave camp. Of course, the actual outcome is essentially unpredictable,…

  • Will the rich really run away from higher tax? And if so, does it matter?

    Whenever high taxes on the super-rich are up for discussion, we frequently hear the argument (usually from the super-rich or their friends!) that this will result in a devastating loss of talent and investment as these individuals flee the country. But is this really going to happen? And, if some do leave, will it really…

  • Will the oil price trigger the long-predicted double dip?

    Back in March 2008, I put down my prediction that later that year the oil price would reach $145  – from the $110 it had reached then – and bring an end to world economic growth. Now we’re back at $90, will it happen again?

  • September oil and other GFC nuggets

    A quarter or two where the GDP manages a dribble of growth isn’t “out of recession”. If I’m right about the likely oil price reaction to any sustained return to growth, we possibly never will be.

  • No earnings, no price

    “If you give me $1, I promise to give you 15¢”. The SMH can’t understand why people aren’t taking up this outstanding offer. I think I can …

  • More oil price speculation

    Back in February, I wrote that “oil prices will continue to rise until they have suppressed demand back to match supply”, and forecast a headline barrel price of $120 in June and $145 at year end. Now it’s June and $139.69, what’s next?

  • “Dear Mr Rudd” – nothing needed on Welfare or Education?

    Robert Manne’s collection Dear Mr Rudd: Ideas for a Better Australia covers some interesting ground, if relatively superficially (or “readable”, according to the blurb). But what I find more interesting is what it doesn’t cover.

  • Oil Dollar Euro ULP

    I’m interested by the claim repeated in numerous news analyses that “investors are buying oil to hedge against the sliding greenback” – it seems to me to be a tad more significant that world oil demand has exceeded world oil supply for the last several months, and looks like doing so for at least the…

  • Australia turns up the heat on climate change?

    “Australians should be proud of what we are achieving at home to meet the climate change challenge” Alexander Downer in the Age this morning. Is he right? UPDATE: CSIRO and BoM report on the future for Australia

  • Oil Prices: where now?

    On Webdiary we’ve gone round the the Peak Oil loop more than a few times over the last few years (eg here). A new point of interest has arisen over this week: for the first time in the last few years the oil futures price has come out of its persistent state of contango as it rose back over…